The number
of people who have died from the coronavirus Covid-19 is now 44,000. Those are
the official figures, but any figures from this government are not to be
trusted. The number of deaths above the five-year mean is running at over 60,000
and that’s certainly a better guide. The truth is that testing has been so bad
that many people have died of Covid-19 without that being put on the death
certificate.
The death
rate has also been worryingly high. You’d have around 1 in 20 chance of death,
if you catch it, although that figure is distorted by the fact that this is a
disease which strikes the elderly. If you’re under 30, you’re basically fine (there’s
more risk of being killed in a road accident) but the risk increases steadily
the older you are, or if you have an “underlying medical condition” such as
diabetes, bad heart or respiratory disease. Obesity is also a major risk-factor
More than
20,000 of the official deaths (so around half) have been in care homes. When
news of the virus first emerged, we were told by government that there was
nothing to worry about; when it was clear that it was coming to the UK, the
government wanted to adopt a herd-immunity policy, allow it to spread through
the population and then die out. It was only when scientists modelled the
effects – half a million dead and the NHS in meltdown – that they acted.
A full
lock-down was implemented, people were not allowed out of home, except for an
hour’s exercise each day and for essential food shopping. The government,
fearing hospitals would be hit by a wave of seriously ill people, ordered that
everyone who could be should be discharged and all routine work was put on
hold. With no testing in place, thousands of old people were discharged into
care homes, some of them carrying Covid-19, hence the dreadful toll on the most
vulnerable section of society.
The NHS has
survived. Massive emergency hospitals bult in exhibition centres were never
needed and the number of intensive-care beds was sufficient. Basically, anyone
over 70 wasn’t put into intensive care and the UK developed a system of
treating the disease using a mask feeding pressurised oxygen, rather than full
intubation.
Supermarket
shelves were emptied by panic buying – toilet rolls, hand wash, baked beans,
pasta, flour and rice could not be found. The roads were empty, there were no
planes visible in the sky and people avoided each other in the street. Only
this week, a couple of old people (clearly very frightened) shouted at me to
get away. I was 30 yards away, but they didn’t want me any nearer!
When cases
were first reported in Europe (in Italy), we were due to go skiing in France,
where there were very few cases, seemingly nothing to worry about and the
government advice remained to wash your hands frequently and carry on as
normal. We arrived at La Plagne on Saturday night at 7pm and at 9pm, we heard
the resort had been closed. We decided to sit tight and see what happened. On
Monday, all of France was locked down. You were not to leave your house without
good reason.
We decided
to cut and run. Sam and Lucy, who were holidaying with us, could not get back
to Jersey and so came to Thorney. The run of an almost deserted autoroute back
to Calais was quite stressful. Would we be turned back? Were we allowed to
travel home? Margaret was very anxious, but it wouldn’t be logical to prevent
us from getting back to England. Surely, they’d be glad to see the back of us.
“Unprecedented” became a common word in almost every news report.
Sam had to
get back to Jersey to finish his notice (they were in the final stages of
moving back to the UK) but with the house to be sold in a few weeks, nurseries
closed and a compulsory quarantine in force, it was decided it was best for
Lucy, Arthur and Saoirse to stay with us. Sam booked an easyJet flight from
Luton, but when we got there, no aircraft were flying. I ran him to the station
and he managed to get a train to Gatwick, book and hotel and a BA flight the
next day! easyJet later claimed that no flights had been cancelled and wouldn’t
offer a refund, so Sam was one of many people who have been unable to get
money/deposits back from holiday companies.
The house
sale was stressful. Getting all the paperwork together was a problem. Lucy
couldn’t be there to sign documents and the UK government ordered a full
lockdown the night before she was to go to a solicitor in Peterborough to have
a document notarised. Would she have to go to Jersey? Could she get to Jersey?
Even if we could get the documents signed, would the Jersey courts be open to
allow the sale to be finalised?
Eventually,
it all worked out. We managed to find a retired JP in Thorney, who was able to
sign the documents as a witness and we maintained social-distancing rules by
handing them through his lounge window for signature. The courts stayed open
and the sale went through.
Sam managed
to get a flight out of Jersey (to Southampton) and a taxi back to Thorney and a
locked-down UK.
Selling the
house was done, the next challenge was buying a house in locked-down Britain.
They had agreed to buy a house in Soham and had agreed a date at the end of
April to complete. This was almost as stressful as selling in Jersey.
Eventually, the sale was renegotiated and went through at the end of May and
they were able to move in a week later in June.
Deaths in
the UK have been far higher than other European countries. Our government has
made a complete hash of it. We locked down two weeks too late. Despite knowing
what was happening in other European countries (especially Italy and Spain), we
stayed open and major events such as Cheltenham Festival, an England
Six-Nations game and a Liverpool-Madrid European Cup match were all allowed to
go ahead. We ignored our early warning and didn’t act until the disease was
rife throughout the country.
This is what
happens when you have government based on an old-boys’ network, when who you
know or who has done you favours matters more than being the best person for
the job.
Sometimes,
life has seemed like a bad dream; although it has (in truth) affected us
little. Apart from some minor irritations such as queuing to get into shops, no
pubs, no cafes, no football, no bike racing, we have been perfectly happy. I
don’t know if that will last. There are going to be massive job losses and the
economy shrank by more than 20 per cent in March, when we were only partially
locked down.
For the past
two weeks, we have been staying in Joyce Jones’ second home in Norfolk (Upper
Sheringham) while Tom, Lucy, Julia, Aureliano and Florencia live in our house.
They’ve just finished a two-week quarantine having managed to get a flight home
from Quito.
Ecuador has
been hard hit by the pandemic, with airports closed, a curfew in place and
strict, stay-at-home policies applied. Lucy’s dad, Carlos, has been hard at
work in the hospital in Ambato and has also lost his elder sister to Covid-19.
We’re used to flu epidemics and the threat of something worse, but this wasn’t
on our radar at all. It isn’t unprecedented, of course, despite what the
politicians say. Spanish Flu killed millions 100 years ago and we’ve suffered
pandemics of the Black Death (bubonic plague) and something called ‘The Sweat’
in Tudor Times.
Will there
be a vaccine developed later in the year? Will we have to establish herd
immunity? Will we be able to catch Covid-19 more than once? At the moment, we
don’t know the answer to any of those questions and in an age where we expect
our science and knowledge to be greater than the power of nature, it’s not a
comfortable position.