These are strange times. I’m sitting at my desk in my study at
home writing this piece. I’m not allowed to go out of the house except for
daily exercise or to buy essential food items and the whole country is in
lock-down due to Covid 19 – a virus no-one had heard of a few months ago, but
which has now spread to almost every country in the world and is killing
thousands of people.
This is the worst global pandemic since the Spanish Flu
outbreak in 1919-20. We’ve often been warned that sooner or later mankind would
be faced with this type of challenge – well folks, here it is!
There have been other scares down the years. Polio spread fear
into people in the 1940s and ‘50s; and, in recent years, we’ve has SARS, MERS,
Swine Flu, Bird Flu and Ebola crises, although none has caused deaths on the
scale of this.
Coronavirus, now renamed Covid 19, has an estimated mortality
rate of around two per cent, although it’s higher in some countries and lower
in others. It is most dangerous to old people or those with underlying health issues
and it is having a profound effect on everyone in this country and beyond.
It started in China, in Wuhan Province (I’d never heard of
Wuhan until February) when it jumped from animals – possible bats, possibly civets,
kept in live animal markets in China – to humans.
Unlike other viral scares, Covid 19 has proven to be extremely
virulent. It spreads like wildfire and it does so partly because infected and
infectious victims don’t show symptoms at first but can still pass on the
virus. It kills by attacking the lungs, causing pneumonia, although many people
suffer mild flu-like symptoms and may not even realise they have it.
Our government response has, of course been woeful. The
administration that sent soldiers to face roadside bombs in canvas-sided Land
Rovers, hasn’t even been able to deliver face masks to hospital staff, let
alone plan an effective strategy to prevent the virus spreading.
Initial advice was to wash your hands for at least 20 seconds
as often as possible. The borders were open, people were told to go about their
business, go on holiday – keep the economy going. The government strategy was
to allow “herd immunity” to develop, which means 80 per cent of the population
need to get the disease. At some point, a couple of weeks ago, someone realised
this meant 500,000 deaths and the National Health Service being overwhelmed.
They changed tack and started issuing stricter advice. Much of
this was contradictory, all of it was muddled, so no-one did much except start
panic buying so supermarket shelves were stripped of toilet paper, tinned food
and pasta. Folk have also been bulk buying bread, milk and cheese. I guess we’ll
reach a point where their freezers and store cupboards are full.
The country is now in complete lock-down. Pubs, restaurants,
theatres, cinemas, museums, galleries and cafes are shut; football and sports
events are cancelled (including the Olympics); all shops except food stores and
pharmacies and most businesses (from hairdressers to notary publics).
Max and Inna are in Syston. Max is writing up his PhD and Inna
is working from home. Tom, Lucia, Julia, Aureliano and Florencia are in
Ecuador. They should have come back to the UK this week, but Ecuador is in
lock-down and their flights were cancelled.
Sam is in Jersey, but Lucy, Arthur and Saoirse are here with
us. They are due to move to the UK in April (in three weeks) but have to sell
their home in Jersey and buy one in Soham while all the country is shut for
business.
I have no idea what will happen. I expect to be alive this
time next year, but I am in that danger area of over-65, so I shouldn’t be complacent.
In a week’s time, the NHS will run out of intensive-care beds and ventilators,
so if you develop severe pneumonia, it’s curtains!
I can go out to walk the dog and to shop, but I’m not supposed
to get closer than two metres to anyone. I’ve been to the allotment today (that’s
allowed) and I’ll go shopping on Friday. I just hope there’s something on the
shelves.
