Sunday 26 June 2016

So what happens now?

It’s three days after the Brexit vote and I’m not feeling any better about things.
Our European partners want us to confirm we’re leaving and for us to negotiate an exit ASAP. There are also various warnings about making it tough to set an example to any other country choosing to leave.
The biggest danger is probably to the bank passport, which allows UK banks to operate throughout the EU. If that’s withdrawn (and the threat is that it will be) then our financial business, which contributes about 20 per cent of GDP, will be wrecked.
Oh and our credit rating is set to be downgraded and did I mention the Scots and Northern Irish want a referendum on separating from the UK.
Interesting times!
No-one has any idea what will happen, what we want to achieve from an exit negotiation by way of trade deal and no idea who will conduct the negotiation.
David Cameron, the Prime Minister (for the time being) has not given formal notice of quitting, he says the timing of that is up to his successor, which is probably the right decision.
So whoever takes on the role of PM (and Boris Johnson is the early favourite) will have the job of repairing the machine that they broke. It’s a pretty daunting job.
I think the best course of action would be to spend this year deciding what we want to achieve and then for the new PM to call a general election to seek a mandate for them as leader and for the policy they will pursue in EU exit negotiations.
A general election would probably see some Conservative seats lost, some UKIP gains (at the expense of the Tories and Labour), SNP holding steady and some gains for Lib-Dems and Greens. It might even throw up a new pro-EU party or, if the Lib-Dems had the nous to stand on a stay-in ticket, it might mean big gains for them.
I couldn’t see any party gaining an overall majority. UKIP, the SNP or another party might hold the balance of power. It might be impossible for Parliament to agree to trigger a Brexit.
Of course, there’s always the possibility of some redneck Tory just pressing the nuclear button without a plan, without a mandate as PM and without a clue what will happen.
The Brexiters are pursuing a line that: “we’re a great country, keep calm and we’ll be fine.”

If only it was that simple.

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