A week is a long time in politics

Harold Wilson, the former Labour Prime Minister, may or may not have said: “a week is a long time in politics.”

Whether he did or not, the quote has a certain resonance right now ...

A week ago today I was going to bed with polls all predicting a win for the Remain vote in the referendum on EU membership. When I woke up, we were as good as out.

A week on and we’ve lost a Prime Minister, the Labour leader has lost a vote of no confidence but won’t resign, Scotland is demanding a referendum on independence, stocks have fallen (the FTSE 250, which is the true indicator of UK confidence) and the £ has hit new lows.

For someone (like me) with my life savings pretty much tied up in stocks and shares, it’s a worrying time.

I also take an interest in politics, have been a member of the Conservative Party for a few years and I'm also strongly pro-EU. I think the organisation has its flaws, but the concept of a united Europe of nations working together, with a common currency, is one that has transformed the continent in my lifetime. Free movement of people, goods and services is a fantastic idea. Sure, massive immigration to the UK has caused alarm among some people, but we’re a victim of our success. The economy is doing well and the immigrants are needed to plug a skills shortage.

I think that Britain pulling out of the EU will cause massive damage to trade and probably kill off what remaining manufacturing we have in the UK (to say nothing of financial services, which contributes 20 per cent of GDP). Unfortunately the referendum campaign was dominated by popularist politicians like Nigel Farage of UKIP and Boris Johnson, the Conservative MP. Both pedalled toxic messages about immigrants, both promised to massively curb immigration and both claimed we’d be better off out.

For many people, it was a powerful message, and they won the vote.

Today has been another extraordinary day. It was the closing date for nominations for new leader of the Conservative party. Theresa May was in the frame, along with a gaggle of no-hopers, and today was the day that Boris was supposed to throw his hat into the ring, supported by Michael Gove, the Justice Secretary and prominent Brexiteer.

It didn’t work out like that. First thing this morning, Gove stabbed Johnson in the back saying he didn’t have what it takes to be PM and said he was running. Boris pulled out, wise enough to know he couldn’t win.

It was an extraordinary volte-face by Gove, who was quoted again and again saying he had no ambitions to be PM and wasn’t suited to the job. But he has form - it was Gove who was David Cameron’s close friend and ally, who stabbed him in the back again and again during the referendum campaign.

So what happens now. I didn’t want either as PM. Conservative MPs will select two candidates and the next PM will be chosen from those two by a poll of Conservative Party members, 150,000 of them and (me apart) probably the most right wing, racist group of people you could hope never to meet.

Gove will have strong appeal (he campaigned for out) and if May is to have any chance of winning she will need to talk tough on immigration. That’s a tragedy for the country because we need access to the single market for industry to thrive, but we won’t get that without free movement of people.

The EU will play tough because it will want to make an example of the UK for leaving the club (and why wouldn’t they?). So we won’t be able to broker a deal.

We could end up with the most right-wing government for 30 years; one that nobody voted for except 150,000 members of the Conservative Party. There’s no way that’s democracy.

The country, the electorate cannot force a general election (except by rioting possibly) yet that is what should happen. We need an election, with Europe at its core, where the Brexit Tories can join UKIP and we can have a re-run of the referendum with a properly nuanced campaign. UKIP may well win 100 seats (a good number from Labour). Perhaps the Tories would campaign to leave, but we’d know where we stood and who to vote for.

So what happens now?

It’s three days after the Brexit vote and I’m not feeling any better about things.

Our European partners want us to confirm we’re leaving and for us to negotiate an exit ASAP. There are also various warnings about making it tough to set an example to any other country choosing to leave.

The biggest danger is probably to the bank passport, which allows UK banks to operate throughout the EU. If that’s withdrawn (and the threat is that it will be) then our financial business, which contributes about 20 per cent of GDP, will be wrecked.

Oh and our credit rating is set to be downgraded and did I mention the Scots and Northern Irish want a referendum on separating from the UK.

Interesting times!

No-one has any idea what will happen, what we want to achieve from an exit negotiation by way of trade deal and no idea who will conduct the negotiation.

David Cameron, the Prime Minister (for the time being) has not given formal notice of quitting, he says the timing of that is up to his successor, which is probably the right decision.

So whoever takes on the role of PM (and Boris Johnson is the early favourite) will have the job of repairing the machine that they broke. It’s a pretty daunting job.

I think the best course of action would be to spend this year deciding what we want to achieve and then for the new PM to call a general election to seek a mandate for them as leader and for the policy they will pursue in EU exit negotiations.

A general election would probably see some Conservative seats lost, some UKIP gains (at the expense of the Tories and Labour), SNP holding steady and some gains for Lib-Dems and Greens. It might even throw up a new pro-EU party or, if the Lib-Dems had the nous to stand on a stay-in ticket, it might mean big gains for them.

I couldn’t see any party gaining an overall majority. UKIP, the SNP or another party might hold the balance of power. It might be impossible for Parliament to agree to trigger a Brexit.

Of course, there’s always the possibility of some redneck Tory just pressing the nuclear button without a plan, without a mandate as PM and without a clue what will happen.

The Brexiters are pursuing a line that: “we’re a great country, keep calm and we’ll be fine.”

If only it was that simple.

What a dramatic day

I feel very sad and very worried. The country has voted to leave the European Union.

I went to sleep on Thursday with the opinion polls and the commentators predicting a narrow win for Remain.

Nigel Farage of UKIP (UK Independence Party) had even conceded defeat and, on the basis of positive polls, the £ had risen to a recent high.

I woke up about 4am to the sound of the radio, which I’d left on, reporting that Leave was ahead in the count and Remain now likely to lose. And that’s just what happened.

The country voted to leave the EU by a margin of four per cent. Only in London, Scotland and a few other large cities (including Liverpool, Bristol, Newcastle and Manchester) was the Remain vote strong.

The £ had fallen to its lowest level in 30 years, the stock market had fallen by eight per cent and at just after 8am the Prime Minister came on TV and resigned. Talk about a dramatic morning - I’ve never witnessed anything like this in my life.

A day on and the EU’s attitude is hardening. We won’t get an easy exit, we won’t get a favourable trade deal and it’s clear that we have no idea what we’re going to do.

The Leave campaigners have no plans, their strategy was out, but the implementation of that decision hasn't been considered. The promises made during the campaign are already being broken. Nigel Farage, who promised money spent on the EU would be spent on the NHS, was on breakfast TV to claim that wasn’t what he said at all (despite it being painted on the side of his campaign bus).

We have no government policy for Brexit and we have no government. The PM is still there, but has given notice and all the pro-EU cabinet ministers are effectively neutralised. The next Prime Minister will be selected first by Conservative MPs, who will choose two candidates, and then by vote of members of the Conservative Party (150,000 people, of which I’m one). It’s not exactly a democratic process and, to be honest, I can’t think of anyone I’d care to vote for. Boris Johnson is a clever man, but I feel he has no principles, just a lust for the top job, but he is clear favourite. I’d prefer Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, who is the best in my view, but she won’t be in the mix.

We need a good, one-nation Conservative, and there’s not one among the candidates. Frankly, I feel so angry at the Conservative party right now, I might just join the Lib-Dems. I’ve always thought I was slightly to the left of the party, I now realise I’m at the extreme left of the party and probably shouldn’t be a member.

So where do we go from here? I haven’t a clue.

Before the referendum, the message from the Leave campaigners was “everything will be fine”, now they’re not giving interviews.

There will almost certainly be a steady fall in the stock market, punctuated by some scary drops and clawbacks as the Bank of England does what it can to stimulate the market; there will be a fall in foreign investment which will hit growth; there will be a move out of the UK and into the EU by many companies (service and manufacturing) and there probably will be another Scottish independence referendum (which may, this time, result in a Scottish exit from the UK).

We will be poorer, we will be more isolated and we already have less influence than we did.

Lots of people are still tweeting and posting that we are a great country and we’ll get through this. I’d say we’re lucky to live in a rich country, although we’re about to get a little poorer, and we will get through it, but not to a level of prosperity that we would have enjoyed had we remained in the EU.

Right now I feel like the grumpy old man who never speaks to his neighbours, who falls out with everyone and who is disliked by everyone in the street.

I feel as if I went to sleep in Great Britain and woke up in Little England.

The negatives will decide if I'm in or out

There has been nothing on the news this week except the story of David Cameron's negotiations to try to achieve a better arrangement for Britain within the European movement.

It was part of the Conservatives election manifesto that they would renegotiate the terms of our membership and then put the issue before the people in an in/out referendum, which will be held in June.

The Britain-out campaigns (several of them) have been running for ages and making lots of noise, well before David Cameron's negotiations started, let alone concluded.

The referendum is being described as the most important decision we will make in our lifetime (a bit hyped), but currently I have no idea how I should vote. My inclination is to be part of Europe and, to me, a single European currency and a united states of Europe make a lot of sense. On the other hand, there’s a fug and a fog about the whole EU operation, which seems to create bureaucracy and inefficiency and waste millions of Pounds (or Euros). I like the principle, but I have some issues with the implementation.

What I really need now is some clear arguments and debate about why we should stay in or why we should leave, but there’s no sign of that happening. The In and the Out campaigns are focused on scaremongering and pandering to prejudice, neither has presented a coherent argument.

I think the main reasons people dislike the EU are xenophobia and immigration.

Lots of people dislike foreigners in principle; it's a position that's less widespread than it was, but it's still a position that many hold. In this case, it can’t be called racism (although some are also racist) because these particular foreigners they hate/dislike/mistrust are the same race as they are, even the same root religion and culture.

Bloody French (always on strike), bloody Germans (want to rule the world), bloody Greeks (bone idle) ... the list goes on. Nothing David Cameron could negotiate would persuade people like that to embrace the EU.

Then there are those who fear immigration (or the free movement of people - one of the key principles of the EU). There are two million EU nationals working in Britain and many people feel that their wages have been eroded by migrant workers or their jobs taken.

I have to say, I share some of these views - I think the Greeks should work a bit harder and I have been known to mutter “bloody French” when I’ve arrived at Calais to find no ferries and a line of fishing boats blockading the port. I’ve also been known (more often) to think similar things about British people. But I do think that free movement is a fantastic idea and there are millions of British people living and working in Europe.

So as an “undecided leaning in” how am I going to decide how to cast my vote?

I have decided to decide by keeping a list of those arguing for out and those arguing for in. Anyone on the list I dislike will get one minus point and anyone I find truly obnoxious will get five minus points.

So the Britain-out campaign gets an immediate -10 thanks to George Galloway and Nigel Farage; while Gordon Brown, Alex Salmond and Tony Blair add up to -7 for the Britain-in lot. It’s a pretty negative way to make up my mind, but entirely in keeping with the negative campaigns being run by the opposing groups.

Alex Salmond - he's in, so I'm out

Nigel Farage - he's out, so I'm in.