A week is a long time in politics

Harold Wilson, the former Labour Prime Minister, may or may not have said: “a week is a long time in politics.”

Whether he did or not, the quote has a certain resonance right now ...

A week ago today I was going to bed with polls all predicting a win for the Remain vote in the referendum on EU membership. When I woke up, we were as good as out.

A week on and we’ve lost a Prime Minister, the Labour leader has lost a vote of no confidence but won’t resign, Scotland is demanding a referendum on independence, stocks have fallen (the FTSE 250, which is the true indicator of UK confidence) and the £ has hit new lows.

For someone (like me) with my life savings pretty much tied up in stocks and shares, it’s a worrying time.

I also take an interest in politics, have been a member of the Conservative Party for a few years and I'm also strongly pro-EU. I think the organisation has its flaws, but the concept of a united Europe of nations working together, with a common currency, is one that has transformed the continent in my lifetime. Free movement of people, goods and services is a fantastic idea. Sure, massive immigration to the UK has caused alarm among some people, but we’re a victim of our success. The economy is doing well and the immigrants are needed to plug a skills shortage.

I think that Britain pulling out of the EU will cause massive damage to trade and probably kill off what remaining manufacturing we have in the UK (to say nothing of financial services, which contributes 20 per cent of GDP). Unfortunately the referendum campaign was dominated by popularist politicians like Nigel Farage of UKIP and Boris Johnson, the Conservative MP. Both pedalled toxic messages about immigrants, both promised to massively curb immigration and both claimed we’d be better off out.

For many people, it was a powerful message, and they won the vote.

Today has been another extraordinary day. It was the closing date for nominations for new leader of the Conservative party. Theresa May was in the frame, along with a gaggle of no-hopers, and today was the day that Boris was supposed to throw his hat into the ring, supported by Michael Gove, the Justice Secretary and prominent Brexiteer.

It didn’t work out like that. First thing this morning, Gove stabbed Johnson in the back saying he didn’t have what it takes to be PM and said he was running. Boris pulled out, wise enough to know he couldn’t win.

It was an extraordinary volte-face by Gove, who was quoted again and again saying he had no ambitions to be PM and wasn’t suited to the job. But he has form - it was Gove who was David Cameron’s close friend and ally, who stabbed him in the back again and again during the referendum campaign.

So what happens now. I didn’t want either as PM. Conservative MPs will select two candidates and the next PM will be chosen from those two by a poll of Conservative Party members, 150,000 of them and (me apart) probably the most right wing, racist group of people you could hope never to meet.

Gove will have strong appeal (he campaigned for out) and if May is to have any chance of winning she will need to talk tough on immigration. That’s a tragedy for the country because we need access to the single market for industry to thrive, but we won’t get that without free movement of people.

The EU will play tough because it will want to make an example of the UK for leaving the club (and why wouldn’t they?). So we won’t be able to broker a deal.

We could end up with the most right-wing government for 30 years; one that nobody voted for except 150,000 members of the Conservative Party. There’s no way that’s democracy.

The country, the electorate cannot force a general election (except by rioting possibly) yet that is what should happen. We need an election, with Europe at its core, where the Brexit Tories can join UKIP and we can have a re-run of the referendum with a properly nuanced campaign. UKIP may well win 100 seats (a good number from Labour). Perhaps the Tories would campaign to leave, but we’d know where we stood and who to vote for.

So what happens now?

It’s three days after the Brexit vote and I’m not feeling any better about things.

Our European partners want us to confirm we’re leaving and for us to negotiate an exit ASAP. There are also various warnings about making it tough to set an example to any other country choosing to leave.

The biggest danger is probably to the bank passport, which allows UK banks to operate throughout the EU. If that’s withdrawn (and the threat is that it will be) then our financial business, which contributes about 20 per cent of GDP, will be wrecked.

Oh and our credit rating is set to be downgraded and did I mention the Scots and Northern Irish want a referendum on separating from the UK.

Interesting times!

No-one has any idea what will happen, what we want to achieve from an exit negotiation by way of trade deal and no idea who will conduct the negotiation.

David Cameron, the Prime Minister (for the time being) has not given formal notice of quitting, he says the timing of that is up to his successor, which is probably the right decision.

So whoever takes on the role of PM (and Boris Johnson is the early favourite) will have the job of repairing the machine that they broke. It’s a pretty daunting job.

I think the best course of action would be to spend this year deciding what we want to achieve and then for the new PM to call a general election to seek a mandate for them as leader and for the policy they will pursue in EU exit negotiations.

A general election would probably see some Conservative seats lost, some UKIP gains (at the expense of the Tories and Labour), SNP holding steady and some gains for Lib-Dems and Greens. It might even throw up a new pro-EU party or, if the Lib-Dems had the nous to stand on a stay-in ticket, it might mean big gains for them.

I couldn’t see any party gaining an overall majority. UKIP, the SNP or another party might hold the balance of power. It might be impossible for Parliament to agree to trigger a Brexit.

Of course, there’s always the possibility of some redneck Tory just pressing the nuclear button without a plan, without a mandate as PM and without a clue what will happen.

The Brexiters are pursuing a line that: “we’re a great country, keep calm and we’ll be fine.”

If only it was that simple.